There has been concern recently that the housing market may be headed for a crash. Although, given the affordability challenges in the housing market and the recession talks in the media, the worry is understandable. However, the data clearly shows that today’s market is much different than it was before the housing crash in 2008. Here’s why:
Getting a home loan was much easier during the 2008 housing crisis than today, as lending standards were different which gave homeowners the opportunity to qualify for a home loan or refinance an existing one. This allowed lending institutions to take on a lot of risk in both the person and the mortgage product offered. Consequently, there were mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices. Currently, potential property purchasers face higher standards from mortgage firms.
While the pandemic resulted in a spike in unemployment over the last couple of years, the jobless rate has already recovered back to pre-pandemic levels. During the Great Recession, many people stayed unemployed for a more extended period, which was different from what occurred this time due to a swift job recovery. Considering that many people are employed today, there’s less risk of homeowners facing hardship and defaulting on loans. This helps put today’s housing market in good stead, and there’s a lower risk of more foreclosures coming onto the market.
During the housing crisis, there were many homes for sale (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to fall dramatically. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory available overall, mainly due to years of underbuilding homes. The unsold inventory is at just a 2.6-months’ supply, and this time there just isn’t enough inventory on the market for home prices to come crashing down like they did in 2008.
The low inventory of homes available for sale helped keep upward pressure on home prices over the course of the pandemic. As a result, homeowners today have near-record amounts of equity, which puts them in a much stronger position compared to the Great Recession.
The graphs in the article indicate that today’s housing market is headed for a crash as there’s a shortage of inventory, homeowners have a lot of equity, and unemployment rates have returned to pre-pandemic levels. The current data clearly shows that today’s market is nothing like what occurred in 2008.